After a catastrophe or tragic event, we naturally wonder if it was preventable. Hindsight is 20/20, and many predictions don't come true. However, experts, researchers, and scientists with lifelong experience in their fields have forecast these future disasters, many of which involve key environmental issues.
About this list
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From August 28, 1859, to September 3, 1859, Earth experienced one of the largest solar flare-induced electrical storms in recorded history.Solar flare-induced electrical stormsOn September 1, British astronomer Richard Carrington climbed to his private observatory and saw strange black spots on the sun. He watched flares of white light jump off the sun's surface. Hours after he recorded this, strange things began. Aurora Borealis showed for three days, and it was not just in the North.Three days.It happened not just in the North. Telegraphs worldwide began sparking and failing. Some telegraph operators even got shocked. The flare Carrington saw sent a CME, a cloud of charged particles and loops, toward Earth. This CME hit our planet's magnetic field. It created a geomagnetic storm that harmed human electrical machines.
Imagine that level of electrical failure with how much our lives depend on digital communication. Scientists cannot predict the exact time for a second Carrington event, but many think we will have one in the next 100 years, or before 2119.Next 100 years.Or before 2119. Some scientists think we could face this disaster in the next ten years. A geomagnetic storm would stop satellites, communication gear, and air traffic control—anything using electromagnetic waves. This causes total chaos. Studies guess repairing the US power grid after an event like the one in 1859 costs $600 billion to $2.6 trillion.$600 billion to $2.6 trillion.
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In December 2014, a theory about computing systems crashing became more real. In 2014, YouTube ran on a 32-bit system. These systems track numbers up to 2,147,483,647 in binary. A video of Psy's song "Gangnam Style" almost hit that limit, nearly crashing the social media site. YouTube upgraded to 64-bit programming, but many consumer computers and smaller networks cannot upgrade. Computer scientists believe many systems will crash on January 19, 2038.January 19, 2038, at about 3:14 am UTC. Computers will not distinguish between 1970, when time tracking began, and the year 2038.
How this affects individual computers varies by case. Some machines might just show the wrong time or date. Others using time in their code could fail to work.Fail to work. Like Y2K, the Year 2038 Problem, also called the Unix Millennium Bug or Y2K38 bug, could cause major damage if it hits large networks like air traffic or power stations. There is no simple fix either, as upgrading to 64-bit processing comes with many problems for programs and networks.Upgrading to 64-bit processingComes with many problems for programs and networks.
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Modern medicine largely eliminated diseases that used to kill whole populations. Vaccines and antibiotics helped achieve this. But every time humans find a new way to fight germs, those germs change. They grow immune to the vaccines and antibiotics built to protect people. Penicillin hit the US market in 1941. By 1942, scientists found a bacterial strain that mutated and became immune to the miracle drug.The bacteria mutated and gained immunity.It became immune to the miracle drug.
Other advances, like antibacterial cleaners and sanitizers, only sped up bacteria's mutation and resistance to antibiotics. Many researchers worry the COVID-19 virus could spark a second bacterial pandemic.This caused a bacterial pandemic.Patients get antibiotics to stop infections after treatment. Most people increase their hand sanitizer and Lysol use. Former CDC director Julie L. Gerberding warns about this.This warns of the situation."Antibiotic resistance could become a huge sickness and death force across our health system as coronavirus pneumonia strains critical care units past capacity."
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People worry about the San Andreas Fault Zone. This fault zone caused the deadliest earthquake in US history.This is the deadliest earthquake.The San Andreas Fault Zone's damage potential is small compared to its northern neighbor, the Cascadia Subduction Zone.The earthquake struck the Cascadia Subduction Zone.This zone spans 700 miles across the Pacific Northwest. It runs from Cape Mendocino, California, through Oregon and Washington, up to Vancouver Island, Canada. It gets this name because a 90,000-square-mile oceanic plate, Juan de Fuca, pushes under the North American Plate. The line sits beneath cities like Seattle, Washington, and Portland, Oregon.
Scientists estimate a 37% chance of a megathrust earthquake, 7.1 magnitude or higher, in this zone within 50 years. Such an event would destroy the Pacific Northwest. Scientists predict a 100-foot tsunami accompanies this earthquake. Last time this happened in 1700, the coastline dropped several feet.The shaking dropped several feet.FEMA projects 13,000 civilians will die from the earthquake and aftermath. Another 27,000 will get hurt. Emergency groups must shelter over 1 million displaced people.
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As of 2020, nearly 785 million people lack access to clean waterThe crisis affects access to clean water.Environmental scientists and activists fight for greener systems to stop the water crisis. Things only worsen now.
The global water crisis is a climate change consequence. It could hit nearly 5 billion people with water shortages by 2050, according to aThe March 2018 UN report covers the Global Water Crisis.The world population is now 9.4 to 10.2 billion. This means nearly half the world will face water shortages. Developing countries suffer most, but everyone is affected globally. Droughts and water shortages cause soil degradation and food shortages. Human pollution degrades water supplies fast, making clean water harder to find. Cities like Cape Town, South Africa, already face severe water crises and must strictly ration water.Severe water crises exist.People must strictly ration their water.
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California holds many tectonic fault zones. Some, like the San Andreas Fault Zone, face a big earthquake soon. The San Andreas Fault Zone runs through 730 miles of the state. In 2008, the US Geological Survey made a prediction for a 7.8 magnitude quake.The situation looks like a crisis.if the quake started in the Coachella Valley. The shaking lasts about two minutes as the quake rips north through the state. The US Geological Survey states this quake type causes "1,800 deaths, 50,000 injuries, $200 billion in damage and other losses, and severe, long-lasting disruption."
The San Andreas Fault Zone earthquake will happen—it is a matter of when. According to theThe California Earthquake Authority is involved.there is a 75% chance of a 7.0 magnitude or larger earthquake hitting Southern California due to the fault zone. This uses a 30-year period starting in 2014, meaning scientists think the Big One will happen by 2044. Two minutes after this quake, experts project thatTen million people face this.will lose water, power, and internet access. Aftershocks could cause decades of economic and infrastructure recovery.
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In June 1978, NASA scientist Donald J. Kessler suggested there is anKessler Syndrome is approaching critical mass.to the low Earth orbiting (LEO) debris circling our planet. This human-made space debris includes dead satellites, abandoned probes, and pieces from ships and other machines. Even tiny debris travels up toKessler Syndrome reaches 17,500 mph.This debris—even small, millimeter-sized pieces—chips away at other orbiting spacecraft and tools, making more debris. NASA reports:
Averaging speeds of 10 km/s (22,000 mph), a 1 centimeter paint fleck causes the same damage as a 550 pound object moving at 60 miles per hour on Earth.
Kessler's theory suggests Earth's orbital debris will become too dense. This density will stop in-orbit tools, such as communication satellites and space stations, from working. This disruption affects every part of modern life. GPS, television, and many other communication vehicles depend on satellites. NASA experts think we have already hit that critical mass.NASA experts think we have already hit that critical mass.Corporations ignore expert advice. Companies like Amazon, SpaceX, Telesat, and OneWeb plan to launch 41,000 satellites by 2024.Companies like Amazon, SpaceX, Telesat, and OneWeb plan to launch 41,000 satellites by 2024.NASA recommends 99% of these satellites by 2024 for Kessler Syndrome.NASA recommends 99% of these satellites be de-orbited.NASA recommends 99% of these satellites be de-orbited after they fulfill their purpose.
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For the 20th century, people talked about a technological singularity—the moment computers become self-aware—only in science fiction. The idea of reaching this singularity has moved into possibility. In 2017, physicist Stephen Hawking told Wired.Stephen Hawking told Wired.Stephen Hawking told Wired.Hawking said humans passed the point of no return regarding artificial intelligence and our end. He stated, "The genie is out of the bottle. I fear that AI may replace humans altogether." Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk is developing a Neuralink.Elon Musk is developing a Neuralink.The Neuralink implant could send information to the brain. This allows humans to keep up with artificial intelligence and coexist, avoiding being wiped out by it.
Many experts race to make technology ensure humans keep up with a fast-emerging super-intelligence. Futurist Ray Kurzweil, Google Director of Engineering, predicts machines will pass the Turing Test by 2029, and we will reach the Singularity.Ray Kurzweil predicts machines will pass the Turing Test by 2029.Ray Kurzweil predicts we will reach the point of singularity as soon as 2045.
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Industrial farming and pesticides reduce the nutrition in the fruits and vegetables people eat today compared to their ancestors.Industrial farming and pesticides have corroded soil for decades.A 2004 study at the University of Texas in Austin shows this decline.A 2004 study at the University of Texas in Austin shows this decline.Garden vegetables and some fruits, like melons and strawberries, show a drop in nutrients. They show declines in protein, phosphorus, iron, riboflavin, calcium, and ascorbic acid. Protein dropped by 6%; riboflavin dropped by 38%. Researchers could not measure declines in magnesium, zinc, vitamin B6, vitamin E, and dietary fiber because those were not reported in 1950.
Environmental and agricultural scientists warn the industrial farming industry about eroded soil's effects on food supply and availability.One paper in the peer-reviewed Science journal outlines the potential consequences.One paper in the peer-reviewed Science journal outlines the potential consequences.The paper outlines the potential consequences if the agricultural industry does not undergo a massive overhaul.Many countries, including the US, will run out of phosphorus, a key mineral for fertilizing large crops. Other scientists and researchers also warn of anAn impending food security crisis looms.This crisis will happen within the next century.
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You can be green, eco-friendly, or care about consumers, but you cannot avoid microplastics.You cannot avoid microplastics.Plastic wraps single-use items, lines food packaging, and lines scrubbing beads in face and body washes, among millions of other products. This small, man-made material releases chemical compounds. You eat the microplastics that enter your food, not just the soup from the can. Scientists warned about microplastics' bad effects on our oceans and wildlife for decades.Microplastics harm oceans and wildlife.As of 2019, more researchers worry about the health risks these tiny plastic pieces might cause humans.
Research lacks proof about microplastics' threats to people. In 2019, the World Health Organization said microorganisms stuck to microplastics in drinking water did not threaten humans. Still, studies link chemicals in some plastics to nervous system dysfunction.Chemicals in some plastics link to nervous system dysfunction.Microplastics cause infertility.Microplastics cause infertility.Microplastics cause infertility, and weakened immune responses.Microplastics cause infertility and weakened immune responses.Researchers now study microplastics' long-term effects on humans and the world.
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